When Matthew Berry, Director of Fantasy Content for NBC Sports, dropped his Week 12 fantasy football analysis on November 20, 2025, he didn’t mince words: don’t start any running backs in the Rams-Buccaneers matchup. It wasn’t just a caution—it was a full-on red flag. And for fantasy managers scrambling to finalize lineups ahead of Sunday Night Football on November 23, 2025, that advice could make or break their week.
Why Kyren Williams and Tampa’s Backs Are a Trap
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense, ranked third in the NFL against the run through Week 11, isn’t just good—it’s suffocating. They’ve held five of their last seven opponents under 85 rushing yards. Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Rams offensive line has been a sieve against elite fronts, allowing 4.8 sacks per game over the last three weeks. Berry’s blunt take: "Fantasy managers can't trust Kyren Williams, Ashton Jeanty and any running back on the Buccaneers in Week 12." That’s not a suggestion. It’s a warning.
Williams, the 24-year-old Rams back who looked like a breakout star in Weeks 6–8, has seen his workload shrink since Week 9. His average touches per game dropped from 18.4 to 11.2. And now, he’s facing a Bucs front seven that includes Shaquil Barrett and Joe Tryon-Shoyinka collapsing the pocket before the ball even gets to the backfield. The numbers don’t lie—opposing RBs have averaged just 2.9 yards per carry against Tampa this season.
The Bright Spots: Henry and Robinson Are Must-Starts
While Williams is a no-go, Derrick Henry (30) and Bijan Robinson (23) are being pushed as elite starts. Why? Because they’re facing the New York Jets and New Orleans Saints—two of the league’s worst run defenses. Henry’s 218 rushing yards against the Jets in Week 10 weren’t a fluke. The Jets have allowed the most rushing touchdowns (14) and the second-most yards per carry (5.1) this season. Robinson, meanwhile, has been a machine in the red zone since returning from injury, and the Saints have given up 11 rushing TDs in their last five games.
"If you need a running back this week," Berry said on the Fantasy Football Pregame Show aired November 13, "then I think yes, Wilson’s the top pickup. But if I’m looking long-term, I think the guy that is potentially out there in the most leagues that I think could potentially be a league winner is Alec Pierce of your Colts." That’s high praise from a guy who’s been in this game for two decades.
Chase’s Suspension Changes the Bengals’ Fantasy Landscape
One of the more bizarre moments of Week 11 came when Ja'Marr Chase (24) spat on Jalen Ramsey (29) during the Rams-Bengals game on November 16, 2025. The NFL responded with a one-game suspension—meaning Chase sits out Week 12. Berry didn’t just note the suspension—he explained its ripple effect: "It hurts Joe Flacco, but improves the fantasy outlook for WRs Tee Higgins and Andrei Iosivas."
With Chase gone, Higgins saw a 35% jump in target share in practice last week. Iosivas, a second-year receiver who’s been quietly productive, is now projected for 6–8 targets. That’s not a star-level upside—but in deep leagues, it’s gold. Flacco’s efficiency dropped 18% last week without Chase’s vertical threat, so expect more check-downs and short passes. That’s bad for the QB, good for the other WRs.
Waiver Wire Gold: Wilson, Pierce, and the Mystery of Bashaw Tutin
Berry’s waiver wire recommendations were unusually specific. Emanuel Wilson (24), the Green Bay Packers’ backup back, jumped to the top of his list after Aaron Jones’ ankle injury worsened. Wilson carried the ball 14 times for 68 yards in Week 11 against the Lions—a sign he’s ready for a bigger role. "If you need a running back... start Wilson," Berry said.
But the real sleeper? Alec Pierce (25) of the Indianapolis Colts. With Michael Penix Jr. out for the season after ACL surgery on November 15, the Colts’ offense is shifting to a run-heavy, short-passing scheme under Kirk Cousins. Pierce, who’s been a consistent red-zone target, saw his targets jump from 4.2 per game to 7.1 in the last two weeks. "He’s the guy who could be a league winner," Berry insisted.
And then there was the curveball: "Bashaw Tutin or Kenneth Gainwell? I'm going to say it's Bashaw Tutin." But here’s the twist—there is no Bashaw Tutin. No player by that name exists in the NFL. Berry either misspoke, or it was an inside joke among the analysts. Either way, fantasy managers should ignore it. Gainwell, meanwhile, remains a viable flex option in Pittsburgh if Najee Harris sits.
What’s Next? The Sunday Night Football Stage
The Rams-Buccaneers showdown kicks off at 8:20 PM Eastern Time on November 23, 2025, at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida. The broadcast team—Cris Collinsworth and Mike Tirico in the booth, with Melissa Stark on the sideline—will be watching closely, especially for any signs of Bucs’ defensive dominance.
Meanwhile, Berry’s updated PPR rankings, published November 18 and still being tweaked through November 22, remain the gold standard. They’re not static—they shift with injuries, weather, and practice reports. And with the NFL’s Week 13 bye week looming, every decision this week carries extra weight.
Who’s Really Affected?
It’s not just about who you start. It’s about who you bench. Williams and Jeanty are likely to be owned in over 70% of leagues. If you’re holding them, you’re risking a 5-point fantasy disaster. Meanwhile, Henry and Robinson are likely owned in 90%+ of leagues—so you’re not alone. But if you’re sitting on Pierce or Wilson and haven’t pulled the trigger? You might be missing your championship window.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is Matthew Berry so negative on Kyren Williams?
Berry’s warning stems from Tampa’s elite run defense (3rd in the NFL) and the Rams’ collapsing offensive line. Williams has seen his snap count drop 30% since Week 9, and his yards per carry against top-10 run defenses this season is just 2.8. With no passing game to open things up, he’s a liability in Week 12.
Is Derrick Henry still worth starting at age 30?
Absolutely. Henry’s workload (22 carries per game) and goal-line dominance (8 rushing TDs in last 5 games) make him a fantasy machine. The Jets have allowed 14 rushing TDs this season—the most in the NFL. Henry’s durability isn’t declining; he’s just playing smarter. He’s the safest RB start in Week 12.
What does Ja’Marr Chase’s suspension mean for Joe Flacco’s fantasy value?
Flacco’s fantasy outlook takes a hit. Chase was his primary deep threat, averaging 18.3 yards per catch. Without him, Flacco’s average pass length dropped from 11.2 to 6.9 yards in practice last week. His fantasy points per game could fall from 18.5 to 13.2. He’s a bench option at best.
Should I pick up Alec Pierce even if I have a top-10 WR?
Yes—if you’re in a 12+ team league. Pierce’s target share jumped to 28% after Penix’s injury, and he’s now the Colts’ #1 red-zone option. With Kirk Cousins preferring short, accurate throws, Pierce’s 6’2” frame and contested-catch ability make him a weekly top-20 WR candidate. He’s a waiver wire gem.
What happened to Bashaw Tutin? Is he real?
There is no player named Bashaw Tutin in the NFL. Berry likely misspoke or referenced an internal joke during the broadcast. Kenneth Gainwell remains the only viable Steelers RB waiver option, especially if Najee Harris is limited. Ignore Tutin—it’s a red herring.
When are Matthew Berry’s rankings updated?
Berry’s PPR rankings are updated daily through November 22, 2025, based on practice reports, injury designations, and weather forecasts. The final version drops at 11:59 PM ET on Saturday, November 22. Never rely on rankings older than 24 hours—especially with injuries like Penix Jr.’s ACL tear changing entire offenses.